The best indicator for Palladium (PA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Palladium (PA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Palladium (PA) over ~25.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 5.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.5 | -66.3% | 53.3% | 15 | 5.4% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.38 | -71.9% | 57.9% | 19 | 0.6% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.41 | -61.6% | 53.8% | 13 | 2.6% |
| 4 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.33 | -58.0% | 47.4% | 19 | -1.0% |
| 5 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.3 | -74.9% | 46.0% | 1476 | -1.0% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 4.7% | 0.3 | -80.3% | 35.6% | 360 | -1.2% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.3 | -73.0% | 41.2% | 85 | -1.4% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.3 | -70.8% | 35.7% | 84 | -1.2% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.29 | -81.5% | 38.1% | 63 | -1.4% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | 4.0% | 0.27 | -87.6% | 35.0% | 369 | -1.8% |
| 11 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.27 | -72.6% | 72.7% | 121 | -2.1% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.27 | -82.8% | 45.8% | 83 | -1.9% |
| 13 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.26 | -50.8% | 34.3% | 137 | -2.2% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.36 | -59.5% | 50.0% | 10 | 0.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Palladium (PA), SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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