The best indicator for S&P Equal Weight (RSP)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P Equal Weight (RSP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P Equal Weight (RSP) over ~23.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.9% | 0.77 | -20.3% | 52.3% | 44 | -2.3% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.7 | -25.8% | 55.8% | 52 | -2.6% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.61 | -23.8% | 56.1% | 57 | -4.0% |
| 4 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.55 | -32.8% | 53.8% | 65 | -4.9% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.54 | -20.2% | 48.4% | 31 | -6.5% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.52 | -22.2% | 52.4% | 105 | -6.1% |
| 7 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.52 | -16.3% | 55.6% | 18 | -7.2% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.51 | -23.8% | 60.0% | 20 | -6.0% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.49 | -35.7% | 48.3% | 354 | -5.8% |
| 10 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.48 | -25.8% | 58.5% | 106 | -6.0% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.55 | -40.2% | 61.5% | 13 | -4.6% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.42 | -53.5% | 40.5% | 291 | -6.7% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.4 | -29.4% | 47.1% | 240 | -7.0% |
| 14 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.4 | -35.9% | 74.1% | 85 | -6.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For S&P Equal Weight (RSP), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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