The best indicator for Dividend (SCHD)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dividend (SCHD) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dividend (SCHD) over ~14.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.82 | -16.2% | 58.1% | 62 | -6.6% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.79 | -20.6% | 64.3% | 28 | -5.2% |
| 3 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.69 | -18.7% | 49.7% | 149 | -7.2% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.69 | -13.3% | 53.6% | 28 | -6.7% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.62 | -33.2% | 77.8% | 54 | -6.7% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | 5.4% | 0.58 | -22.8% | 44.8% | 203 | -7.9% |
| 7 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.57 | -26.6% | 51.2% | 41 | -6.9% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 5.1% | 0.55 | -22.1% | 42.9% | 191 | -8.2% |
| 9 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.55 | -20.9% | 56.1% | 139 | -7.6% |
| 10 | Rate of Change | Daily | 4.9% | 0.54 | -22.8% | 48.3% | 230 | -8.4% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.53 | -28.5% | 53.8% | 39 | -7.5% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.53 | -23.0% | 48.5% | 68 | -7.7% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.5 | -28.0% | 82.3% | 62 | -8.7% |
| 14 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.5 | -28.0% | 77.9% | 95 | -8.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dividend (SCHD), Donchian Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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