The best indicator for Semiconductors (SMH)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Semiconductors (SMH) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Semiconductors (SMH) over ~26.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.9% | 0.67 | -33.8% | 50.0% | 16 | 2.3% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.3% | 0.67 | -34.4% | 66.7% | 15 | 2.8% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 10.6% | 0.66 | -31.8% | 61.1% | 18 | 0.1% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.57 | -50.2% | 47.9% | 71 | -0.8% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.57 | -61.9% | 51.4% | 70 | -0.4% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.53 | -41.3% | 61.0% | 41 | -2.7% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.5 | -48.3% | 41.4% | 58 | -1.6% |
| 8 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.5 | -62.6% | 51.9% | 81 | -2.0% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.59 | -48.9% | 58.3% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.8% | 0.45 | -28.1% | 53.8% | 26 | -4.7% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.43 | -38.8% | 58.5% | 53 | -3.4% |
| 12 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.42 | -49.0% | 71.6% | 109 | -3.9% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.42 | -56.4% | 72.1% | 136 | -3.2% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.42 | -63.6% | 50.8% | 130 | -3.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Semiconductors (SMH), EMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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