The best indicator for 3x Semis (SOXL)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Semis (SOXL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Semis (SOXL) over ~16.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 38.6% | 0.86 | -54.6% | 46.3% | 41 | -3.6% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 38.7% | 0.86 | -65.1% | 56.4% | 39 | -3.5% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 33.9% | 0.81 | -68.5% | 50.7% | 71 | -8.3% |
| 4 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 29.9% | 0.74 | -75.1% | 53.1% | 49 | -12.3% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 28.8% | 0.73 | -72.9% | 44.4% | 36 | -13.5% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 26.1% | 0.7 | -72.5% | 71.0% | 69 | -16.2% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 27.5% | 0.7 | -73.0% | 75.0% | 60 | -14.7% |
| 8 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 21.7% | 0.63 | -84.7% | 42.7% | 253 | -20.6% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 20.5% | 0.61 | -80.0% | 43.1% | 167 | -21.8% |
| 10 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 19.3% | 0.6 | -72.5% | 73.8% | 80 | -22.9% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 23.6% | 0.66 | -70.5% | 46.2% | 13 | -18.6% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 38.5% | 0.83 | -80.4% | 60.0% | 10 | -3.8% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 16.2% | 0.55 | -88.4% | 53.0% | 151 | -26.0% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 14.6% | 0.53 | -80.2% | 42.5% | 240 | -27.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 3x Semis (SOXL), RSI Trend (>50) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.