The best indicator for Semiconductors (SOXX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Semiconductors (SOXX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Semiconductors (SOXX) over ~25.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.74 | -32.6% | 58.8% | 17 | -1.4% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.8% | 0.73 | -34.3% | 68.8% | 16 | 0.6% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.67 | -34.3% | 71.4% | 14 | -0.8% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.62 | -42.8% | 54.1% | 61 | -2.5% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 10.6% | 0.59 | -46.3% | 56.0% | 75 | -3.5% |
| 6 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.57 | -49.2% | 42.4% | 59 | -3.7% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.53 | -42.2% | 50.9% | 114 | -4.9% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.52 | -50.3% | 56.2% | 73 | -5.1% |
| 9 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.5 | -31.7% | 50.0% | 26 | -7.1% |
| 10 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.49 | -38.6% | 47.5% | 40 | -7.0% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.48 | -40.7% | 48.1% | 52 | -6.4% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.6% | 0.57 | -44.6% | 66.7% | 12 | -3.5% |
| 13 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.42 | -55.5% | 72.7% | 33 | -7.1% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.4 | -54.6% | 67.6% | 105 | -8.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Semiconductors (SOXX), Donchian Breakout on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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