The best indicator for 3x S&P (UPRO)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x S&P (UPRO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Rate of Change
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x S&P (UPRO) over ~16.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 12.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 19.9% | 0.76 | -52.5% | 48.0% | 254 | -12.9% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 17.1% | 0.69 | -44.5% | 48.0% | 179 | -15.7% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 15.0% | 0.67 | -36.6% | 52.6% | 76 | -17.8% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 17.2% | 0.74 | -32.2% | 100.0% | 13 | -15.5% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 14.7% | 0.6 | -46.2% | 62.5% | 40 | -17.9% |
| 6 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.9% | 0.59 | -54.9% | 51.2% | 41 | -17.9% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 14.2% | 0.59 | -46.1% | 60.0% | 15 | -18.5% |
| 8 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 14.5% | 0.59 | -45.0% | 61.5% | 52 | -18.1% |
| 9 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 14.8% | 0.56 | -73.2% | 93.3% | 15 | -18.0% |
| 10 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.56 | -46.3% | 59.1% | 22 | -21.3% |
| 11 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.4% | 0.55 | -46.2% | 62.8% | 78 | -20.2% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 12.6% | 0.54 | -62.3% | 44.4% | 223 | -20.2% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 11.8% | 0.54 | -50.0% | 80.0% | 20 | -20.9% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 13.0% | 0.52 | -70.4% | 79.3% | 29 | -19.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 3x S&P (UPRO), Rate of Change on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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