The best indicator for Short VIX (SVXY)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Short VIX (SVXY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Short VIX (SVXY) over ~14.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 6.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 18.4% | 0.73 | -38.7% | 50.0% | 142 | 6.7% |
| 2 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.6 | -50.5% | 71.4% | 21 | 1.0% |
| 3 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 9.5% | 0.58 | -30.2% | 88.9% | 18 | -2.2% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.54 | -63.6% | 48.6% | 35 | 2.4% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.9% | 0.54 | -61.0% | 52.5% | 59 | 2.0% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.53 | -56.0% | 50.0% | 38 | 1.8% |
| 7 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 12.2% | 0.52 | -47.4% | 44.0% | 184 | 0.4% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.4% | 0.48 | -54.0% | 47.0% | 319 | -1.3% |
| 9 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.48 | -35.0% | 55.0% | 20 | -1.4% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.47 | -52.9% | 45.5% | 187 | -1.5% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.6% | 0.44 | -62.7% | 45.7% | 35 | -2.1% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 8.8% | 0.44 | -70.2% | 42.9% | 63 | -3.0% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 9.6% | 0.59 | -48.4% | 90.9% | 11 | -1.3% |
| 14 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.42 | -48.4% | 69.2% | 13 | -4.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Short VIX (SVXY), MACD on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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