The best indicator for TIPS (TIP)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real TIPS (TIP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Williams %R
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for TIPS (TIP) over ~22.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.51 | -5.3% | 90.0% | 30 | -2.0% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.5 | -11.6% | 60.0% | 15 | -1.2% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.51 | -12.5% | 46.2% | 13 | -1.1% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 1.1% | 0.43 | -7.4% | 81.0% | 21 | -2.4% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.42 | -9.4% | 58.8% | 17 | -1.9% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.4 | -8.0% | 41.9% | 31 | -2.0% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.34 | -12.1% | 67.1% | 79 | -2.2% |
| 8 | CCI | Weekly | 1.1% | 0.34 | -13.9% | 86.4% | 22 | -2.4% |
| 9 | MACD | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.33 | -10.9% | 54.2% | 48 | -2.2% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | 1.2% | 0.33 | -13.9% | 86.7% | 15 | -2.3% |
| 11 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.32 | -13.2% | 46.9% | 64 | -2.1% |
| 12 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.31 | -9.9% | 69.5% | 118 | -2.4% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.3 | -13.7% | 33.3% | 54 | -2.3% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.29 | -12.2% | 39.1% | 64 | -2.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For TIPS (TIP), Williams %R on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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