The best indicator for Crude Oil (USO)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Crude Oil (USO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Rate of Change
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Crude Oil (USO) over ~20.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 9.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.25 | -57.4% | 45.1% | 71 | 9.9% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 2.7% | 0.23 | -66.1% | 44.9% | 312 | 9.5% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.23 | -59.6% | 34.7% | 95 | 9.5% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.22 | -75.4% | 27.3% | 55 | 9.3% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.1% | 0.2 | -66.4% | 28.6% | 49 | 8.8% |
| 6 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.2 | -73.9% | 36.4% | 44 | 8.8% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.2 | -51.8% | 42.9% | 21 | 8.7% |
| 8 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.14 | -63.2% | 28.6% | 21 | 7.7% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.14 | -67.9% | 26.3% | 19 | 7.7% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 0.6% | 0.13 | -61.3% | 43.4% | 83 | 7.3% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | -0.1% | 0.11 | -78.2% | 26.3% | 19 | 6.7% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | -1.1% | 0.06 | -70.2% | 39.1% | 284 | 5.6% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | -1.1% | 0.05 | -77.8% | 17.6% | 17 | 5.6% |
| 14 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | -0.6% | 0.04 | -54.9% | 41.8% | 79 | 6.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Crude Oil (USO), Rate of Change on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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