The best indicator for Energy (VDE)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Energy (VDE) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Williams %R
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Energy (VDE) over ~21.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.47 | -49.9% | 83.9% | 31 | -1.0% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.44 | -39.6% | 36.8% | 296 | -1.4% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.43 | -40.0% | 53.3% | 15 | -1.5% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.52 | -27.6% | 63.6% | 11 | 0.5% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.36 | -39.4% | 46.7% | 92 | -3.6% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.31 | -55.0% | 42.4% | 66 | -3.9% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.29 | -50.1% | 46.3% | 337 | -4.5% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.29 | -49.9% | 41.4% | 304 | -4.4% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.28 | -61.6% | 45.5% | 220 | -4.4% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.27 | -68.8% | 72.0% | 82 | -4.6% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.26 | -53.1% | 76.5% | 17 | -4.9% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.25 | -39.9% | 50.0% | 32 | -5.3% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.23 | -35.0% | 54.5% | 22 | -5.5% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.22 | -51.6% | 43.6% | 55 | -5.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Energy (VDE), Williams %R on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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