The best indicator for Info Tech (VGT)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Info Tech (VGT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Info Tech (VGT) over ~22.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.79 | -27.6% | 50.0% | 50 | -3.5% |
| 2 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.8% | 0.78 | -29.8% | 55.8% | 95 | -4.1% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.77 | -24.1% | 61.0% | 59 | -4.3% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.7 | -33.0% | 56.0% | 50 | -5.0% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.65 | -27.5% | 45.1% | 51 | -6.0% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.65 | -31.6% | 44.5% | 292 | -6.5% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.59 | -30.4% | 49.0% | 102 | -8.3% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.59 | -22.4% | 63.6% | 22 | -7.3% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.63 | -31.8% | 78.6% | 14 | -5.1% |
| 10 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.65 | -32.8% | 53.8% | 13 | -4.4% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.56 | -32.5% | 42.0% | 333 | -7.9% |
| 12 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.56 | -45.2% | 82.4% | 17 | -8.5% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.55 | -32.8% | 61.2% | 49 | -8.3% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.54 | -41.4% | 53.8% | 208 | -8.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Info Tech (VGT), RSI Trend (>50) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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