The best indicator for Dividend Growth (VIG)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dividend Growth (VIG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dividend Growth (VIG) over ~20.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.73 | -19.7% | 63.9% | 36 | -2.8% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.63 | -22.4% | 66.7% | 48 | -3.4% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.61 | -21.9% | 64.7% | 17 | -4.4% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.52 | -23.2% | 61.8% | 55 | -5.0% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.51 | -35.1% | 53.3% | 60 | -5.1% |
| 6 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.49 | -35.7% | 75.0% | 20 | -5.6% |
| 7 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.58 | -26.9% | 72.7% | 11 | -3.3% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.63 | -31.7% | 70.0% | 10 | -2.8% |
| 9 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.4 | -31.2% | 69.7% | 66 | -5.8% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.39 | -21.6% | 53.8% | 91 | -7.1% |
| 11 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.39 | -33.4% | 87.5% | 32 | -5.9% |
| 12 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.35 | -23.3% | 46.2% | 212 | -7.1% |
| 13 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.35 | -29.3% | 73.9% | 92 | -6.7% |
| 14 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.32 | -35.6% | 75.8% | 132 | -6.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dividend Growth (VIG), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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