The best indicator for Real Estate (VNQ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Real Estate (VNQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Real Estate (VNQ) over ~21.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.42 | -53.8% | 81.8% | 22 | -2.2% |
| 2 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.33 | -45.2% | 71.3% | 94 | -3.1% |
| 3 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.32 | -39.2% | 73.0% | 111 | -3.4% |
| 4 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.32 | -53.8% | 77.1% | 35 | -3.2% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | 3.4% | 0.31 | -37.0% | 68.4% | 19 | -4.0% |
| 6 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 3.0% | 0.27 | -47.6% | 50.0% | 16 | -4.6% |
| 7 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 2.9% | 0.26 | -46.9% | 46.7% | 15 | -4.7% |
| 8 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.26 | -28.7% | 50.0% | 24 | -5.3% |
| 9 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.25 | -30.0% | 49.1% | 108 | -4.8% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 2.3% | 0.22 | -36.6% | 41.4% | 58 | -5.4% |
| 11 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.22 | -67.2% | 88.9% | 18 | -5.2% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.22 | -44.5% | 43.8% | 73 | -5.3% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.21 | -36.6% | 54.6% | 207 | -5.4% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.2 | -59.2% | 88.9% | 18 | -5.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Real Estate (VNQ), Stochastic on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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