The best indicator for Total US Market (VTI)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Total US Market (VTI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Total US Market (VTI) over ~24.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.77 | -22.6% | 51.1% | 45 | -1.2% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.72 | -19.2% | 66.1% | 56 | -1.9% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.71 | -23.5% | 65.5% | 55 | -1.5% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.7 | -20.7% | 63.2% | 19 | -2.6% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.69 | -35.0% | 69.2% | 13 | -1.2% |
| 6 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.56 | -13.3% | 63.2% | 19 | -5.6% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.55 | -28.9% | 53.7% | 67 | -3.9% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.53 | -27.0% | 51.8% | 112 | -5.0% |
| 9 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.51 | -21.3% | 55.9% | 111 | -4.6% |
| 10 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.63 | -35.0% | 58.3% | 12 | -1.9% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.5 | -32.1% | 47.5% | 375 | -4.7% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.39 | -46.3% | 40.6% | 323 | -6.0% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.38 | -22.0% | 45.1% | 273 | -6.0% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.63 | -32.9% | 88.9% | 9 | -1.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Total US Market (VTI), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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