The best indicator for High Dividend (VYM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real High Dividend (VYM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for High Dividend (VYM) over ~19.5 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.63 | -21.3% | 50.0% | 42 | -3.0% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.49 | -17.3% | 47.7% | 86 | -5.3% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.47 | -22.0% | 52.9% | 17 | -4.9% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.57 | -27.5% | 41.7% | 12 | -2.7% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.45 | -37.7% | 71.8% | 71 | -3.9% |
| 6 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.44 | -31.9% | 51.2% | 41 | -5.3% |
| 7 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.41 | -32.0% | 50.3% | 195 | -5.3% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.5 | -35.5% | 58.3% | 12 | -3.7% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.39 | -25.2% | 55.6% | 63 | -5.5% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.38 | -20.2% | 52.9% | 17 | -6.6% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.37 | -51.5% | 40.0% | 240 | -5.8% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 3.5% | 0.35 | -31.7% | 58.9% | 56 | -5.7% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.34 | -44.3% | 53.4% | 296 | -6.1% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.33 | -38.4% | 44.3% | 253 | -6.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For High Dividend (VYM), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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