The best indicator for Biotech (XBI)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Biotech (XBI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Biotech (XBI) over ~20.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 8.8% | 0.52 | -29.3% | 70.9% | 103 | -2.2% |
| 2 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.5 | -36.0% | 68.0% | 103 | -2.4% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.4 | -39.7% | 46.9% | 64 | -4.7% |
| 4 | MACD | Daily | 5.9% | 0.39 | -58.2% | 45.0% | 200 | -5.0% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.37 | -53.3% | 50.0% | 54 | -5.3% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.35 | -37.9% | 46.3% | 82 | -6.3% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Daily | 5.3% | 0.35 | -48.5% | 67.6% | 74 | -5.6% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.35 | -43.2% | 52.0% | 98 | -5.6% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.32 | -53.1% | 42.6% | 54 | -6.4% |
| 10 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.32 | -38.2% | 70.8% | 137 | -6.5% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.34 | -48.8% | 35.7% | 14 | -5.8% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.31 | -51.7% | 84.2% | 19 | -6.9% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.31 | -51.7% | 80.0% | 15 | -6.8% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.31 | -46.8% | 48.9% | 190 | -6.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Biotech (XBI), Stochastic on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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