The best indicator for Energy (XLE)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Energy (XLE) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Energy (XLE) over ~27.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.53 | -27.7% | 50.0% | 16 | -0.1% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.5 | -34.5% | 61.1% | 18 | -0.7% |
| 3 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.35 | -57.3% | 65.4% | 185 | -3.8% |
| 4 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.34 | -62.0% | 76.2% | 42 | -3.9% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.33 | -55.1% | 42.0% | 81 | -4.3% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.32 | -52.6% | 81.8% | 22 | -4.9% |
| 7 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.32 | -53.9% | 80.0% | 35 | -4.3% |
| 8 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.31 | -66.1% | 75.0% | 104 | -4.3% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.46 | -48.4% | 70.0% | 10 | -1.5% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.29 | -64.5% | 72.3% | 119 | -5.1% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.5% | 0.29 | -38.1% | 44.0% | 25 | -5.2% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.27 | -33.9% | 55.3% | 38 | -5.9% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.26 | -61.3% | 63.0% | 135 | -5.6% |
| 14 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.26 | -65.7% | 67.6% | 136 | -5.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Energy (XLE), EMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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