The best indicator for Industrials (XLI)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Industrials (XLI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Industrials (XLI) over ~27.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.49 | -33.6% | 50.0% | 14 | -3.2% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.45 | -43.6% | 41.3% | 63 | -4.2% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.45 | -42.8% | 45.5% | 77 | -3.9% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.42 | -32.1% | 47.3% | 74 | -4.5% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.4 | -32.0% | 43.1% | 269 | -4.9% |
| 6 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.39 | -45.3% | 54.5% | 22 | -4.8% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.36 | -52.5% | 47.9% | 94 | -5.4% |
| 8 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.34 | -55.9% | 72.0% | 25 | -5.6% |
| 9 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.34 | -38.5% | 50.4% | 141 | -5.7% |
| 10 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.33 | -59.0% | 72.3% | 184 | -5.6% |
| 11 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.32 | -52.9% | 76.1% | 138 | -5.7% |
| 12 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.32 | -22.3% | 54.2% | 24 | -6.9% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.32 | -41.8% | 52.4% | 21 | -6.1% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.39 | -43.6% | 50.0% | 12 | -4.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Industrials (XLI), EMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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