The best indicator for Technology (XLK)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Technology (XLK) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Technology (XLK) over ~27.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.4% | 0.66 | -32.2% | 64.7% | 17 | -0.0% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.66 | -32.5% | 47.9% | 73 | -0.9% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.69 | -31.2% | 71.4% | 14 | 0.9% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.62 | -47.6% | 50.0% | 64 | -1.4% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.6 | -40.5% | 49.2% | 59 | -1.7% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.6 | -42.4% | 53.0% | 66 | -1.8% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.51 | -38.0% | 61.5% | 39 | -4.2% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.47 | -49.7% | 56.6% | 122 | -4.2% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.45 | -39.0% | 64.0% | 25 | -4.7% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.43 | -37.6% | 42.1% | 375 | -4.7% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.64 | -36.7% | 77.8% | 9 | -0.1% |
| 12 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.36 | -44.6% | 84.8% | 46 | -5.4% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.36 | -57.3% | 55.1% | 254 | -5.8% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.33 | -54.5% | 39.6% | 371 | -6.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Technology (XLK), SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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