The best indicator for Consumer Staples (XLP)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Consumer Staples (XLP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Holy Grail Confluence
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Consumer Staples (XLP) over ~27.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.55 | -22.6% | 82.9% | 41 | -1.9% |
| 2 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.46 | -28.4% | 86.2% | 29 | -2.4% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.45 | -23.2% | 71.1% | 121 | -3.0% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.44 | -25.9% | 63.2% | 19 | -2.2% |
| 5 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.43 | -27.0% | 78.8% | 33 | -3.5% |
| 6 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.42 | -28.6% | 46.7% | 15 | -2.3% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.42 | -32.4% | 75.2% | 125 | -3.3% |
| 8 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.38 | -24.3% | 85.7% | 28 | -3.7% |
| 9 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.34 | -22.6% | 77.8% | 36 | -4.3% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.34 | -25.4% | 76.2% | 21 | -4.2% |
| 11 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.34 | -24.3% | 88.2% | 17 | -4.1% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.6% | 0.31 | -28.5% | 38.3% | 60 | -4.1% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.28 | -31.4% | 73.0% | 178 | -4.4% |
| 14 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.25 | -31.4% | 83.3% | 18 | -5.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Consumer Staples (XLP), Holy Grail Confluence on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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