The best indicator for Real Estate (XLRE)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Real Estate (XLRE) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Real Estate (XLRE) over ~10.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.89 | -9.2% | 90.0% | 10 | -0.1% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.49 | -36.0% | 72.9% | 59 | -1.2% |
| 3 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.49 | -29.6% | 77.8% | 18 | -0.8% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.41 | -20.4% | 46.7% | 105 | -2.7% |
| 5 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.42 | -30.8% | 85.7% | 14 | -3.0% |
| 6 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.36 | -36.0% | 68.8% | 77 | -3.2% |
| 7 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.33 | -36.0% | 70.6% | 17 | -4.0% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.33 | -36.0% | 72.2% | 18 | -3.5% |
| 9 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.29 | -36.0% | 76.9% | 39 | -4.0% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.28 | -36.0% | 68.1% | 47 | -4.4% |
| 11 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.2 | -37.2% | 73.2% | 56 | -5.5% |
| 12 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.32 | -24.8% | 87.5% | 8 | -3.8% |
| 13 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.15 | -32.1% | 80.0% | 10 | -6.3% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.09 | -24.4% | 44.1% | 152 | -7.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Real Estate (XLRE), Stochastic on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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