The best indicator for Utilities (XLU)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Utilities (XLU) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Utilities (XLU) over ~27.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.58 | -36.1% | 68.8% | 16 | -0.1% |
| 2 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.53 | -40.1% | 75.9% | 29 | -1.7% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.5 | -36.1% | 50.0% | 16 | -1.4% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 3.7% | 0.36 | -43.9% | 42.6% | 61 | -4.0% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.6 | -32.1% | 77.8% | 9 | 0.4% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.34 | -37.9% | 72.0% | 93 | -3.8% |
| 7 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.33 | -39.4% | 82.1% | 39 | -4.1% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.28 | -40.8% | 45.0% | 80 | -4.9% |
| 9 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.28 | -40.2% | 48.8% | 127 | -5.0% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.25 | -45.2% | 64.8% | 108 | -5.4% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.25 | -42.4% | 70.3% | 128 | -5.3% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.25 | -40.4% | 62.5% | 24 | -5.5% |
| 13 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.25 | -44.4% | 47.0% | 100 | -5.3% |
| 14 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.23 | -34.0% | 80.0% | 35 | -5.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Utilities (XLU), SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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