The best indicator for Health Care (XLV)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Health Care (XLV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Health Care (XLV) over ~27.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.6 | -20.2% | 92.0% | 25 | -3.0% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.54 | -18.2% | 95.2% | 21 | -4.3% |
| 3 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.53 | -18.7% | 100.0% | 25 | -3.8% |
| 4 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.46 | -18.7% | 81.8% | 22 | -3.9% |
| 5 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.44 | -40.8% | 73.5% | 34 | -3.8% |
| 6 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.42 | -25.3% | 85.0% | 40 | -4.1% |
| 7 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.42 | -24.0% | 83.8% | 37 | -4.2% |
| 8 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.4 | -31.0% | 72.4% | 134 | -4.1% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.4% | 0.39 | -31.7% | 52.4% | 21 | -4.8% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.39 | -42.3% | 57.1% | 14 | -3.7% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.33 | -41.7% | 68.9% | 183 | -4.9% |
| 12 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.31 | -45.4% | 65.3% | 95 | -5.2% |
| 13 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.29 | -45.2% | 59.1% | 22 | -5.4% |
| 14 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.7% | 0.27 | -39.2% | 45.5% | 22 | -5.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Health Care (XLV), Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.