The best indicator for Consumer Disc. (XLY)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Consumer Disc. (XLY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Williams %R
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Consumer Disc. (XLY) over ~27.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.51 | -34.3% | 86.1% | 36 | -3.0% |
| 2 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.46 | -35.4% | 82.5% | 40 | -3.9% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.42 | -37.9% | 44.1% | 59 | -4.5% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.42 | -37.4% | 72.7% | 22 | -4.2% |
| 5 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.37 | -49.0% | 50.0% | 16 | -4.9% |
| 6 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.36 | -31.1% | 86.1% | 36 | -5.9% |
| 7 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.36 | -46.4% | 49.3% | 71 | -5.3% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.35 | -44.9% | 50.0% | 128 | -5.6% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.34 | -36.7% | 80.8% | 26 | -5.5% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.34 | -51.4% | 75.0% | 20 | -5.3% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.33 | -49.4% | 47.0% | 83 | -5.7% |
| 12 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.31 | -43.8% | 81.2% | 112 | -6.2% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.28 | -30.7% | 51.9% | 27 | -6.7% |
| 14 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.27 | -60.9% | 44.4% | 18 | -6.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Consumer Disc. (XLY), Williams %R on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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