The best indicator for Dow Futures (YM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dow Futures (YM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dow Futures (YM) over ~24.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.48 | -34.1% | 71.4% | 14 | -1.7% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.46 | -30.6% | 57.1% | 14 | -1.8% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.41 | -22.3% | 45.0% | 60 | -3.1% |
| 4 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.41 | -31.4% | 90.0% | 40 | -2.8% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.37 | -29.3% | 44.3% | 70 | -3.2% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.36 | -49.8% | 73.4% | 94 | -2.6% |
| 7 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.35 | -27.9% | 47.2% | 250 | -3.7% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.33 | -17.2% | 50.5% | 99 | -4.4% |
| 9 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.29 | -42.9% | 93.3% | 15 | -4.3% |
| 10 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.27 | -47.2% | 82.1% | 28 | -3.9% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.27 | -26.7% | 50.7% | 73 | -4.5% |
| 12 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.26 | -45.6% | 81.2% | 32 | -4.4% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.26 | -48.9% | 86.7% | 15 | -4.6% |
| 14 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.26 | -23.6% | 53.2% | 79 | -4.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dow Futures (YM), SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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