The best indicator for Wheat (ZW)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Wheat (ZW) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Wheat (ZW) over ~25.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.56 | -24.4% | 67.0% | 103 | 3.7% |
| 2 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.43 | -48.9% | 63.6% | 44 | 4.1% |
| 3 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.4 | -57.5% | 67.3% | 55 | 3.1% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.36 | -48.9% | 66.7% | 33 | 1.5% |
| 5 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.31 | -46.5% | 76.9% | 26 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.33 | -28.6% | 78.6% | 14 | -0.2% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.28 | -45.0% | 64.2% | 151 | 0.2% |
| 8 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.25 | -38.7% | 64.8% | 182 | -0.3% |
| 9 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.24 | -31.7% | 66.7% | 33 | -1.2% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.23 | -48.9% | 64.7% | 17 | -0.7% |
| 11 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.22 | -56.3% | 65.3% | 98 | -0.9% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 2.1% | 0.21 | -48.4% | 64.0% | 125 | -1.3% |
| 13 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.19 | -50.9% | 67.9% | 28 | -1.4% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.16 | -67.0% | 20.0% | 15 | -2.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Wheat (ZW), Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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