Does MACD Actually Work? We Backtested It on 741 Assets

The honest answer

MACD crossovers are trading-course gospel. So we ran MACD through the same out-of-sample, cost-included engine as every other indicator on 741 assets. The verdict: it's a niche tool, not a holy grail.

Across every asset we tested it on, MACD beat a simple buy-and-hold on just 10% of them, with a median Sharpe of 0.29.

What MACD actually is

MACD is the gap between a fast and slow moving average, plus a signal line; a bullish cross is the classic buy. We test the standard 12/26/9 long/flat version.

We test the standard, textbook version — no curve-fitting, no tuned settings per asset. That's deliberately a fair fight, and it's why these numbers are lower (and more honest) than the backtests you'll see in a course sales page.

Where it does work

It was the single best indicator we found for 1 of our 741 assets, and its strongest result was Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) (+121.8% vs buy-and-hold).

Check the MACD page for the exact assets and timeframes it wins on.

The bottom line

MACD is a real tool, but it's not magic — like almost every single indicator, it loses to buy-and-hold on most assets. The edge, when it exists, is asset-specific. Don't trade it blind; check whether it actually works on your asset first.