The best indicator for EUR/GBP
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real EUR/GBP history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for EUR/GBP over ~27.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.38 | -10.9% | 54.8% | 31 | 1.2% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 1.7% | 0.33 | -22.3% | 56.2% | 160 | 1.0% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 1.2% | 0.24 | -15.4% | 62.7% | 118 | 0.5% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.23 | -20.9% | 22.5% | 173 | 0.5% |
| 5 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 0.9% | 0.19 | -28.4% | 53.9% | 191 | 0.2% |
| 6 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.4% | 0.18 | -12.5% | 71.4% | 35 | -0.2% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.18 | -19.9% | 63.3% | 30 | -0.0% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 0.5% | 0.11 | -24.9% | 33.3% | 24 | -0.2% |
| 9 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.09 | -22.9% | 64.4% | 149 | -0.4% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.08 | -16.2% | 42.9% | 21 | -0.5% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.07 | -16.0% | 58.4% | 113 | -0.5% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.07 | -18.4% | 33.3% | 18 | -0.5% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.05 | -28.3% | 52.6% | 19 | -0.7% |
| 14 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 0.1% | 0.04 | -25.2% | 22.7% | 22 | -0.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For EUR/GBP, Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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