The best indicator for EUR/JPY
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real EUR/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for EUR/JPY over ~24.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.8% | 0.36 | -21.4% | 35.9% | 142 | 0.2% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.24 | -21.4% | 56.2% | 16 | -0.2% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 1.5% | 0.22 | -33.5% | 61.1% | 95 | -0.1% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.21 | -26.8% | 42.1% | 19 | -0.2% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.25 | -24.7% | 58.3% | 12 | -0.1% |
| 6 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.18 | -23.0% | 77.3% | 22 | -0.6% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.15 | -24.2% | 28.1% | 57 | -0.7% |
| 8 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 0.7% | 0.14 | -28.5% | 67.8% | 115 | -0.8% |
| 9 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.12 | -20.7% | 73.3% | 15 | -1.0% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.12 | -26.5% | 48.2% | 83 | -1.0% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.4% | 0.09 | -31.1% | 28.6% | 21 | -1.2% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 0.4% | 0.09 | -30.3% | 67.2% | 119 | -1.2% |
| 13 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.08 | -26.5% | 62.0% | 108 | -1.2% |
| 14 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.07 | -25.6% | 61.1% | 36 | -1.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For EUR/JPY, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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