The best indicator for NZD/JPY
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real NZD/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
WaveTrend (8/6/4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for NZD/JPY over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.33 | -43.9% | 75.3% | 97 | 1.9% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.7% | 0.32 | -28.1% | 34.4% | 131 | 0.5% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.29 | -46.3% | 40.3% | 1222 | 1.1% |
| 4 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 1.2% | 0.17 | -49.8% | 76.5% | 17 | -0.1% |
| 5 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 0.9% | 0.14 | -26.7% | 63.5% | 115 | -0.3% |
| 6 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.14 | -51.6% | 78.6% | 28 | -0.4% |
| 7 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.12 | -41.5% | 77.8% | 18 | -0.7% |
| 8 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 0.5% | 0.1 | -49.8% | 75.0% | 24 | -0.8% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 0.4% | 0.09 | -28.1% | 65.0% | 157 | -0.9% |
| 10 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.07 | -37.9% | 65.9% | 41 | -1.0% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.07 | -42.2% | 30.8% | 13 | -1.1% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.06 | -44.3% | 75.9% | 116 | -1.1% |
| 13 | MACD | Daily | -0.1% | 0.04 | -45.9% | 44.1% | 227 | -1.3% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | -0.0% | 0.04 | -26.0% | 61.0% | 100 | -1.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For NZD/JPY, WaveTrend (8/6/4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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