The best indicator for NZD/USD
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real NZD/USD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for NZD/USD over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Daily | 1.5% | 0.22 | -22.1% | 64.2% | 95 | 2.0% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 0.7% | 0.15 | -24.5% | 36.9% | 141 | 1.2% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.15 | -37.8% | 63.2% | 19 | 1.4% |
| 4 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.12 | -36.8% | 73.3% | 30 | 1.2% |
| 5 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.06 | -34.9% | 64.0% | 25 | 0.6% |
| 6 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.05 | -32.2% | 37.8% | 1217 | 0.5% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | -0.2% | 0.03 | -41.7% | 70.4% | 27 | 0.3% |
| 8 | Williams %R | Weekly | -0.8% | -0.02 | -37.7% | 65.6% | 32 | -0.3% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.5% | -0.03 | -47.4% | 30.0% | 20 | -0.1% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.6% | -0.05 | -37.0% | 60.8% | 97 | -0.1% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI | Weekly | -0.8% | -0.05 | -40.3% | 34.4% | 32 | -0.3% |
| 12 | Rate of Change | Daily | -1.1% | -0.09 | -37.2% | 36.4% | 343 | -0.6% |
| 13 | RSI Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.9% | -0.11 | -36.8% | 63.6% | 33 | -0.4% |
| 14 | Williams %R | Daily | -1.3% | -0.11 | -39.4% | 62.3% | 154 | -0.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For NZD/USD, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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