The best indicator for USD/BRL
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/BRL history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/BRL over ~21.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.53 | -32.1% | 43.0% | 121 | 3.1% |
| 2 | Bollinger Breakout | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.39 | -30.4% | 38.1% | 21 | 1.1% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.35 | -32.0% | 44.6% | 56 | 0.9% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.31 | -42.4% | 38.7% | 62 | 0.4% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.33 | -34.7% | 57.1% | 14 | 0.5% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.3 | -27.4% | 44.0% | 25 | 0.2% |
| 7 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.37 | -28.9% | 50.0% | 12 | 1.4% |
| 8 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.29 | -32.3% | 42.7% | 199 | 0.1% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 2.9% | 0.28 | -43.0% | 39.6% | 48 | 0.2% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.26 | -31.5% | 46.3% | 41 | -0.3% |
| 11 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.26 | -46.7% | 40.2% | 97 | -0.3% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.25 | -33.7% | 50.0% | 16 | -0.3% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.25 | -36.8% | 36.5% | 74 | -0.4% |
| 14 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.22 | -17.9% | 72.4% | 29 | -1.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/BRL, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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