The best indicator for USD/CAD
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/CAD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/CAD over ~22.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.25 | -21.9% | 60.0% | 20 | 1.7% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 0.5% | 0.11 | -29.9% | 63.7% | 91 | 0.4% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.07 | -25.3% | 27.5% | 149 | 0.1% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.05 | -19.3% | 39.7% | 63 | 0.1% |
| 5 | Stochastic | Daily | 0.1% | 0.04 | -24.0% | 58.6% | 128 | -0.0% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.04 | -28.2% | 55.0% | 20 | -0.1% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -0.1% | 0.01 | -26.0% | 30.5% | 59 | -0.2% |
| 8 | CCI | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.0 | -25.3% | 60.9% | 23 | -0.3% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.2% | -0.01 | -26.5% | 25.0% | 20 | -0.3% |
| 10 | Williams %R | Weekly | -0.2% | -0.01 | -28.0% | 74.2% | 31 | -0.3% |
| 11 | RSI Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.1% | -0.02 | -13.2% | 63.6% | 33 | -0.2% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Weekly | -0.8% | -0.03 | -37.2% | 25.0% | 12 | -1.0% |
| 13 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.4% | -0.03 | -29.6% | 33.3% | 18 | -0.5% |
| 14 | Williams %R | Daily | -0.3% | -0.03 | -24.1% | 59.6% | 161 | -0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/CAD, Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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