The best indicator for USD/CNY
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/CNY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/CNY over ~24.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.55 | -13.5% | 19.3% | 109 | 2.0% |
| 2 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.35 | -4.2% | 41.2% | 17 | 1.5% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.33 | -7.7% | 24.4% | 45 | 1.6% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 0.5% | 0.24 | -16.5% | 25.6% | 39 | 1.3% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.21 | -6.9% | 26.1% | 23 | 1.2% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 0.5% | 0.2 | -9.7% | 25.5% | 47 | 1.3% |
| 7 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.4% | 0.17 | -8.2% | 35.7% | 14 | 1.3% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.14 | -14.5% | 25.6% | 86 | 1.1% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.11 | -13.4% | 24.3% | 74 | 1.0% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.08 | -15.5% | 20.0% | 95 | 0.9% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.08 | -7.7% | 42.9% | 14 | 1.0% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.04 | -13.2% | 28.0% | 25 | 0.9% |
| 13 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 0.0% | 0.03 | -10.7% | 26.7% | 15 | 0.8% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.03 | -10.0% | 29.5% | 44 | 0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/CNY, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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