The best indicator for USD/HKD
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/HKD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Mean-Reversion
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/HKD over ~24.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.06 | -0.7% | 50.0% | 10 | -0.0% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.01 | -1.7% | 50.0% | 16 | -0.0% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.08 | -1.7% | 33.3% | 18 | -0.1% |
| 4 | Stochastic | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.16 | -2.8% | 31.2% | 16 | -0.1% |
| 5 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Weekly | -0.2% | -0.31 | -4.4% | 0.0% | 8 | -0.2% |
| 6 | Williams %R | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.18 | -2.5% | 41.7% | 24 | -0.1% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.22 | -3.5% | 19.0% | 21 | -0.1% |
| 8 | RSI Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.2% | -0.25 | -4.4% | 11.1% | 36 | -0.2% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.31 | -2.9% | 14.3% | 14 | -0.1% |
| 10 | CCI | Weekly | -0.2% | -0.32 | -4.7% | 25.8% | 31 | -0.2% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.2% | -0.39 | -5.7% | 8.7% | 23 | -0.2% |
| 12 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.3% | -0.57 | -7.2% | 14.8% | 27 | -0.3% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | -0.4% | -0.57 | -9.6% | 14.3% | 35 | -0.4% |
| 14 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Daily | -0.5% | -0.61 | -12.3% | 4.7% | 85 | -0.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/HKD, RSI Mean-Reversion on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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