The best indicator for USD/INR
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/INR history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/INR over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.72 | -13.5% | 33.3% | 147 | 0.3% |
| 2 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.55 | -10.5% | 50.0% | 20 | -0.9% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.54 | -12.9% | 37.3% | 75 | -0.6% |
| 4 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.53 | -13.9% | 37.9% | 103 | -0.7% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.53 | -11.9% | 57.1% | 14 | -0.7% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.47 | -12.0% | 39.3% | 56 | -1.0% |
| 7 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.45 | -8.7% | 45.8% | 201 | -1.2% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.44 | -18.2% | 39.1% | 46 | -0.8% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.47 | -14.0% | 57.1% | 14 | -0.3% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.42 | -15.2% | 38.3% | 47 | -1.4% |
| 11 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.38 | -18.0% | 80.0% | 15 | -2.0% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.37 | -18.2% | 41.8% | 67 | -1.4% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.45 | -14.4% | 50.0% | 12 | -0.3% |
| 14 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | 1.4% | 0.33 | -14.0% | 39.4% | 109 | -1.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/INR, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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