The best indicator for USD/KRW
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/KRW history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
WaveTrend (8/6/4)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/KRW over ~22.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 124.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 125.9% | 0.52 | -100.0% | 68.8% | 16 | 124.6% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.49 | -15.1% | 31.5% | 111 | 2.3% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | 3.4% | 0.48 | -15.2% | 48.2% | 112 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 671.1% | 0.47 | -19.0% | 76.0% | 25 | 669.8% |
| 5 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 50.4% | 0.42 | -100.0% | 52.4% | 21 | 49.2% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 127.2% | 0.3 | -16.9% | 52.6% | 19 | 126.0% |
| 7 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 14.8% | 0.3 | -3828268.5% | 47.7% | 239 | 13.6% |
| 8 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.27 | -15.3% | 64.3% | 98 | 0.4% |
| 9 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.15 | -32.0% | 52.6% | 19 | -0.4% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.9% | 0.14 | -33.5% | 33.3% | 15 | -0.3% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | -55.1% | 0.21 | -100.0% | 60.0% | 10 | -56.3% |
| 12 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.5% | 0.1 | -36.6% | 36.8% | 19 | -0.6% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.08 | -27.4% | 53.8% | 156 | -0.8% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -0.8% | -0.03 | -37.1% | 41.7% | 60 | -2.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/KRW, WaveTrend (8/6/4) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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