The best indicator for USD/SGD
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/SGD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/SGD over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.26 | -12.2% | 25.4% | 138 | 2.0% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -0.1% | -0.01 | -13.8% | 27.7% | 47 | 1.1% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.01 | -9.8% | 26.7% | 15 | 1.2% |
| 4 | RSI Mean-Reversion | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.04 | -14.9% | 50.0% | 8 | 1.1% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | -0.2% | -0.03 | -11.9% | 34.5% | 55 | 1.1% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI | Weekly | -0.2% | -0.04 | -13.4% | 48.0% | 25 | 1.0% |
| 7 | MACD | Weekly | -0.3% | -0.07 | -18.0% | 36.4% | 44 | 0.9% |
| 8 | CCI | Weekly | -0.4% | -0.1 | -26.0% | 63.6% | 22 | 0.9% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | -0.6% | -0.13 | -19.2% | 27.6% | 58 | 0.7% |
| 10 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | -0.7% | -0.16 | -16.7% | 37.1% | 97 | 0.6% |
| 11 | Rate of Change | Weekly | -0.7% | -0.17 | -17.3% | 34.2% | 79 | 0.5% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.8% | -0.21 | -21.5% | 11.1% | 18 | 0.4% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.8% | -0.22 | -21.7% | 10.5% | 19 | 0.4% |
| 14 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | -0.8% | -0.22 | -26.3% | 63.2% | 19 | 0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/SGD, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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