The best indicator for USD/TRY
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/TRY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Heikin-Ashi Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/TRY over ~22.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 15.6% | 1.19 | -23.3% | 41.1% | 1150 | -1.7% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 15.7% | 1.18 | -30.7% | 42.3% | 137 | -1.6% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 15.0% | 1.03 | -34.9% | 38.5% | 39 | -2.4% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.3% | 0.95 | -34.9% | 60.0% | 15 | -4.0% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 14.7% | 0.95 | -33.2% | 53.7% | 41 | -3.0% |
| 6 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 14.4% | 0.93 | -30.5% | 62.5% | 16 | -3.3% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 12.6% | 0.92 | -34.9% | 57.4% | 47 | -4.7% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 14.7% | 0.92 | -30.5% | 41.3% | 46 | -2.9% |
| 9 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.8% | 0.9 | -30.5% | 47.7% | 86 | -3.9% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 13.6% | 0.87 | -30.5% | 60.0% | 55 | -4.1% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.84 | -34.8% | 32.6% | 264 | -6.0% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.84 | -30.5% | 57.7% | 26 | -4.5% |
| 13 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 9.7% | 0.81 | -32.0% | 49.5% | 97 | -7.7% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 14.8% | 0.95 | -30.5% | 83.3% | 12 | -2.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/TRY, Heikin-Ashi Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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