The best indicator for USD/ZAR
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/ZAR history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/ZAR over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.55 | -17.2% | 67.0% | 97 | 0.9% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.55 | -26.0% | 71.0% | 131 | 0.9% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.47 | -44.5% | 37.2% | 1222 | 1.3% |
| 4 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.44 | -32.1% | 70.0% | 20 | 0.3% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.4 | -32.0% | 35.3% | 156 | -0.0% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.39 | -21.4% | 71.4% | 91 | -0.1% |
| 7 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.33 | -35.4% | 65.4% | 156 | -0.9% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.3 | -25.1% | 46.7% | 15 | -1.5% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.23 | -35.4% | 62.5% | 16 | -1.9% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.23 | -38.9% | 66.7% | 15 | -1.9% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.26 | -29.7% | 46.2% | 13 | -1.4% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.2 | -21.6% | 70.6% | 119 | -2.6% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.2 | -38.8% | 68.0% | 25 | -2.6% |
| 14 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.19 | -45.0% | 39.3% | 28 | -2.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/ZAR, Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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